Our Trade Prosperity and the Outlook

Evolution of the Asia-Pacific Trade Architecture: Stocktake and Future Outlook

APEC Study Centre, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand     Abstract:   One of the key sets of questions underlying Asia Pacific economic cooperation over the last decade has been over the nature and form of the regional trade architecture that would gradually emerge from the turmoil of the Asia-Pacific “noodle bowl” of bilateral and plurilateral FTAs, and how that architecture...

Even without our biases, the outlook for prognostication is grim

Physicians are biased and imprecise, but we are better at predicting mortality in the intensive care unit than any mathematical model currently available. But even if we were flawless prognosticators, we would still be left with the larger ethical problem of what to do with prognostic information. In order to translate prognosis into recommendation, we need to know about patient values.

Prayers for Our Protection and Prosperity at Court: Shakers, Children, and the Law

Patience and prosperity

This paper introduces wealth-dependent time preference into a simple model of endogenous growth. The model generates adjustment dynamics in line with the historical facts on savings and economic growth in Europe from the High Middle Ages to today. Along a virtuous cycle of development more wealth leads to more patience, which leads to more savings and even higher wealth. Savings rates and incom...

Toys, Tinsel, and Trade: The Outlook for the 1991 Holiday Shopping Season